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Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Başakşehir.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Başakşehir 3-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.12 xG and Başakşehir 0.91 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.25 / defence 0.83 against Başakşehir attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 64% | Draw 22% | Başakşehir 14%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 65%, Başakşehir 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Başakşehir's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.60. Form held, and they took the win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights