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Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Antalyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Antalyaspor 3-0 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.48 xG and Antalyaspor 1.01 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.33 / defence 0.98 against Antalyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 69% | Draw 18% | Antalyaspor 13%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 66%, Antalyaspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights