Fenerbahçe 1-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 10 as Fenerbahçe welcome Alanyaspor to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have gone 6W 1D 2L from 9 outings — a 2.11 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 games at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 5W 2D 2L from 9 Süper Lig matches — 1.89 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.56 per game and conceding 1.56. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.11 PPG (Fenerbahçe) versus 1.89 (Alanyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Fenerbahçe trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 56% versus Alanyaspor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fenerbahçe 44% | Alanyaspor 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.42 xG and Alanyaspor 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.072 / defence 1.102 | Alanyaspor attack 0.770 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.142. Data: 9 Fenerbahçe games / 9 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Alanyaspor 3.85. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fenerbahçe 75% | Alanyaspor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.42 / Alanyaspor 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.072 / def 1.102 | Alanyaspor attack 0.770 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Alanyaspor xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?
Fenerbahçe 1 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 47% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-1D-2L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 1.56 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fenerbahçe's attack at 1.07x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.73
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.39
0.97
Alanyaspor xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
6%
16.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.97 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 9 games, going 6W 1D 2L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fenerbahçe on 2.11 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 3W 1D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alanyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.56 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Alanyaspor in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 6W 1D 2L in their last 9 games (2.11 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Alanyaspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.50 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 7, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Alanyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 75%, Alanyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fenerbahçe) and 25% (Alanyaspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Fenerbahçe's games and 50% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fenerbahçe's recent games and 25% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat Fenerbahçe 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Fenerbahçe 1-2 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.42 xG and Alanyaspor 0.97 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.07 / defence 1.10 against Alanyaspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.08, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 26%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Alanyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 44%, Alanyaspor 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fenerbahçe 2.11 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.