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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 1, as Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.71 xG and Alanyaspor 1.15 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.25 / defence 0.89 against Alanyaspor attack 1.05 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 50% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 25%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 70%, Alanyaspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights