Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Yeni Malatyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük and Yeni Malatyaspor meet at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Yeni Malatyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Yeni Malatyaspor have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 0 for Yeni Malatyaspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 4–3 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Yeni Malatyaspor — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 50% versus Yeni Malatyaspor 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 46% | Yeni Malatyaspor 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.837 / defence 1.220 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.498 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.103. Data: 23 Fatih Karagümrük games / 22 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 43% | Draw 34% | Yeni Malatyaspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Yeni Malatyaspor 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Yeni Malatyaspor's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.70 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Yeni Malatyaspor 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 43% | Draw 34% | Yeni Malatyaspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 / Yeni Malatyaspor 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.837 / def 1.220 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.498 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 43% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 1W | Draws 0 | Yeni Malatyaspor 0W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating (0.84) and Yeni Malatyaspor's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Yeni Malatyaspor's attack (0.50x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
43%
2.34
34%
2.90
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
1.70
0.67
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
2.34
43%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.12
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
8%
12.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.67 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 7W 6D 9L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Yeni Malatyaspor's form line: 4W 4D 14L from 22 games, 0.73 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fatih Karagümrük are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Yeni Malatyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
On the road, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 0.82 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 4D 14L in their last 22 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Yeni Malatyaspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.30 PPG; Yeni Malatyaspor away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
0
Draws
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Yeni Malatyaspor see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 0% (Yeni Malatyaspor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Fatih Karagümrük and 10% for Yeni Malatyaspor.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 30% of games; Yeni Malatyaspor in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 0% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 10% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Yeni Malatyaspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Yeni Malatyaspor in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fatih Karagümrük edge out Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.67 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.50 / defence 1.04, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 43% | Draw 34% | Yeni Malatyaspor 23%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 46%, Yeni Malatyaspor 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.