Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 14 as Fatih Karagümrük welcome Trabzonspor to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 3W 3D 0L from 6 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 0L across 7 road games this term (2.71 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 2.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Fatih Karagümrük's 1.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fatih Karagümrük 54% and Trabzonspor 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 54% | Trabzonspor 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.16 xG and Trabzonspor 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.073 / defence 1.001 | Trabzonspor attack 1.109 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.118. Data: 13 Fatih Karagümrük games / 13 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 34% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Trabzonspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Fatih Karagümrük 67% | Trabzonspor 57% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 34% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.16 / Trabzonspor 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.073 / def 1.001 | Trabzonspor attack 1.109 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Trabzonspor xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 34% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
34%
2.95
28%
3.54
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.40
1.24
Trabzonspor xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.24 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 6W 4D 3L from 13 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 3D 0L across 13 games — 2.54 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fatih Karagümrük heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 3W 3D 0L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 5W 1D 0L across 6 trips, a 2.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 2.08 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 6W 4D 3L in their last 13 games (1.69 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 10W 3D 0L in their last 13 (2.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 2.00 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.67 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2024, when Trabzonspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 67%, Trabzonspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 50% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 50% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 50% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.16 xG and Trabzonspor 1.24 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Trabzonspor attack 1.11 / defence 0.93, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 34% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 38%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 54%, Trabzonspor 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.69. Form held, and they took the win. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.