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Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Fatih Karagümrük 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-4 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 0.56 xG and Trabzonspor 1.26 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.54 / defence 1.23 against Trabzonspor attack 0.83 / defence 0.81, drawn from 6/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 14% | Draw 35% | Trabzonspor 51%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 50%, Trabzonspor 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Fatih Karagümrük scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor scored 4 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights