Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük host İstanbulspor at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 3 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, İstanbulspor stand at 1W 2D 3L from 6 Süper Lig matches — 0.83 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. İstanbulspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, İstanbulspor have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.83 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fatih Karagümrük at 1.30 PPG versus İstanbulspor's 0.83. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
İstanbulspor in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 67% versus İstanbulspor 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 50% | İstanbulspor 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.48 xG and İstanbulspor 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.154 / defence 1.153 | İstanbulspor attack 0.755 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.237. Data: 44 Fatih Karagümrük games / 6 İstanbulspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 46% | Draw 26% | İstanbulspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | İstanbulspor 3.57. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fatih Karagümrük 60% | İstanbulspor 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Monday 3 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 46% | Draw 26% | İstanbulspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.48 / İstanbulspor 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.154 / def 1.153 | İstanbulspor attack 0.755 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.08
İstanbulspor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 October 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 2 İstanbulspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 46% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. İstanbulspor (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.15x the league average against İstanbulspor's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, İstanbulspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
46%
2.15
26%
3.85
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.56
1.08
İstanbulspor xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
6%
15.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.08 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 3D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, İstanbulspor sit at 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for İstanbulspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 1.00 PPG, İstanbulspor on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, İstanbulspor have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 0.83 PPG overall record — İstanbulspor travel well.
The Goals Picture
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
İstanbulspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or İstanbulspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.33 PPG; İstanbulspor away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or İstanbulspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, İstanbulspor in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fatih Karagümrük go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting İstanbulspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
0
Draws
1
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, İstanbulspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when İstanbulspor 1-2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
İstanbulspor see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fatih Karagümrük at 100%, İstanbulspor at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Fatih Karagümrük and 0% for İstanbulspor.
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor in 33%; İstanbulspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play İstanbulspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 33% of İstanbulspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs İstanbulspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 0% of İstanbulspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and İstanbulspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, İstanbulspor in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as İstanbulspor defy the odds to beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
İstanbulspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.48 xG and İstanbulspor 1.08 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. İstanbulspor outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.15 / defence 1.15 against İstanbulspor attack 0.76 / defence 0.92, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 46% | Draw 26% | İstanbulspor 28%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual İstanbulspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 50%, İstanbulspor 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.00 PPG, İstanbulspor 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the İstanbulspor win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.