Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Rizespor make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Fatih Karagümrük have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 4D 2L this season (9 games, 1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.

Rizespor (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Rizespor have gone 0W 1D 8L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.11 PPG). Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.11 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.40 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Fatih Karagümrük 0W, Rizespor 0W, 1D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 60% versus Rizespor 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Rizespor 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.74 xG and Rizespor 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.915 / defence 1.311 | Rizespor attack 0.666 / defence 1.647. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.096. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.647 — this is suppressing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Fatih Karagümrük games / 20 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 56% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 20%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Rizespor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 67% | Rizespor 44% BTTS from recent games.

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