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Shock result as Fatih Karagümrük defy the odds to beat Rizespor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fatih Karagümrük beat Rizespor 2-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.11 xG and Rizespor 1.31 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.81 / defence 1.00 against Rizespor attack 1.13 / defence 1.02, drawn from 27/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 29% | Draw 33% | Rizespor 38%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Fatih Karagümrük win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 44%, Rizespor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Rizespor's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.63. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights