Fatih Karagümrük 3-3 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 8 January 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's home record at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.20 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fatih Karagümrük register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Konyaspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 1 for Konyaspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 56% versus Konyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 57% | Konyaspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.60 xG and Konyaspor 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.209 / defence 1.110 | Konyaspor attack 1.076 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.364. Data: 54 Fatih Karagümrük games / 54 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 37% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Konyaspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 70% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Jan 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 37% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.60 / Konyaspor 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.209 / def 1.110 | Konyaspor attack 1.076 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Konyaspor xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 8 January 2023 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 3 - 3 Konyaspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 37% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 1W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.21x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.08x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
37%
2.70
25%
4.04
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
3.23
1.63
Konyaspor xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
7%
13.78
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.63 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 21W 13D 20L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 26W 16D 12L from 54 games, 1.74 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-D. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.74 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.70 PPG from 27 outings (13W 7D 7L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 10W 8D 9L from 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.59 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 21W 13D 20L in their last 54 games (1.41 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 26W 16D 12L in their last 54 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Konyaspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.70 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 1-4 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
4
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Konyaspor have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Konyaspor 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 56%, Konyaspor 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 59% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 70% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 59% of Konyaspor's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 18, as Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor drew 3-3 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.60 xG and Konyaspor 1.63 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor outscored their 1.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.21 / defence 1.11 against Konyaspor attack 1.08 / defence 0.83, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 37% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 38%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 57%, Konyaspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.41 PPG, Konyaspor 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.