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Fatih Karagümrük cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Konyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fatih Karagümrük beat Konyaspor 2-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.06 xG and Konyaspor 2.17 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.79 / defence 1.47 against Konyaspor attack 1.12 / defence 1.05, drawn from 11/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 16% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 61%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Fatih Karagümrük win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 54%, Konyaspor 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Konyaspor's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.36. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights