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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor encounter.

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Full Analysis

Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 9 November 2025 at 11:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Fatih Karagümrük have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fatih Karagümrük's home record at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı: 0W 1D 5L from 6 Süper Lig appearances (0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.

Konyaspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Konyaspor's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Konyaspor are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 1 for Konyaspor and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.

Konyaspor — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fatih Karagümrük 46% and Konyaspor 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 54% | Konyaspor 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.06 xG and Konyaspor 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.792 / defence 1.469 | Konyaspor attack 1.125 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.313. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Fatih Karagümrük games / 47 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 16% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 61%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 6.25 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.06 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.

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