Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 38 as Fatih Karagümrük welcome Kasımpaşa to NEF Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 6 June 2023 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Fatih Karagümrük at NEF Stadyumu this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fatih Karagümrük at 1.40 PPG versus Kasımpaşa's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Fatih Karagümrük, 0 for Kasımpaşa and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 59% versus Kasımpaşa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Kasımpaşa 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.70 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.157 / defence 1.101 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.850 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.457. Data: 73 Fatih Karagümrük games / 73 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 45% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 31%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Kasımpaşa 3.23. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 80% | Kasımpaşa 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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