Fatih Karagümrük 3-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 36%, yet in-form Kasımpaşa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 32 as Fatih Karagümrük welcome Kasımpaşa to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kasımpaşa — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fatih Karagümrük, 0 for Kasımpaşa and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 42% versus Kasımpaşa 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Kasımpaşa 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.19 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.838 / defence 0.869 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.084 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.231. Data: 31 Fatih Karagümrük games / 31 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 36% | Draw 30% | Kasımpaşa 34%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Kasımpaşa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kasımpaşa (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 30% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 36% | Draw 30% | Kasımpaşa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.19 / Kasımpaşa 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.838 / def 0.869 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.084 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Kasımpaşa xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa?
Fatih Karagümrük 3 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 36% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa?
Record (1 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 1W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
36%
2.78
30%
3.38
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.35
1.16
Kasımpaşa xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.16 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 12W 7D 12L from 31 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 12L across 31 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 1.39 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 7W 5D 3L from 15 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.52 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 65%.
Last 31 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 12W 7D 12L in their last 31 games (1.39 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 11W 8D 12L in their last 31 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.73 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Kasımpaşa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jun 2023, when Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 3-2 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 40%, Kasımpaşa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 40% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 27% of games; Kasımpaşa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 53% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 40% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fatih Karagümrük edge out Kasımpaşa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Kasımpaşa 3-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.19 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.16 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.84 / defence 0.87 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.08 / defence 1.16, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 36% | Draw 30% | Kasımpaşa 34%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 48%, Kasımpaşa 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.39 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.