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Prediction vindicated as Fatih Karagümrük edge out Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fatih Karagümrük beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-0 at Ataturk Olimpiyat, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.25 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.72 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.79 / defence 1.08 against Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.59 / defence 1.06, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 46% | Draw 36% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 18%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 48%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 0.68 PPG, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights