Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 39%, yet in-form Galatasaray provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Galatasaray make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 28 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Galatasaray's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Galatasaray have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Galatasaray are 0.60 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 1 for Galatasaray and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Galatasaray winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Galatasaray goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 52% versus Galatasaray 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 54% | Galatasaray 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 xG and Galatasaray 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.200 / defence 1.104 | Galatasaray attack 0.876 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.272. Data: 48 Fatih Karagümrük games / 48 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 39% | Draw 27% | Galatasaray 34%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Galatasaray 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Galatasaray (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fatih Karagümrük 70% | Galatasaray 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 39% | Draw 27% | Galatasaray 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 / Galatasaray 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.200 / def 1.104 | Galatasaray attack 0.876 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Galatasaray xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 October 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 2 Galatasaray.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 39% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray?
Record (2 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 1 | Galatasaray 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Galatasaray (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.20x the league average against Galatasaray's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Galatasaray's attack (0.88x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.77
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.57
1.23
Galatasaray xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.23 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 19W 12D 17L from 48 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Galatasaray, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 16L across 48 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.46 for Galatasaray. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 12W 6D 6L from 24 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Galatasaray's away record stands at 6W 9D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 1.31 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Galatasaray
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 19W 12D 17L in their last 48 games (1.44 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 19W 13D 16L in their last 48 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Galatasaray away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.75 PPG; Galatasaray away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Galatasaray have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won 3-0 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Galatasaray — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
6
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, Galatasaray have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-3 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 54%, Galatasaray 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 42% (Galatasaray).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Galatasaray in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Galatasaray?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 50% of Galatasaray's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 42% of Galatasaray's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Galatasaray cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 xG and Galatasaray 1.23 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.20 / defence 1.10 against Galatasaray attack 0.88 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 39% | Draw 27% | Galatasaray 34%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Galatasaray win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 54%, Galatasaray 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Galatasaray's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.44 PPG, Galatasaray 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Galatasaray win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Galatasaray (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.