Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Galatasaray make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 3W 2D 0L from 5 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Galatasaray's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Galatasaray have posted 2W 2D 2L from 6 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.70 for Galatasaray. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Galatasaray in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Galatasaray goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 46% versus Galatasaray 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 54% | Galatasaray 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.88 xG and Galatasaray 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.170 / defence 0.987 | Galatasaray attack 1.051 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.119. Galatasaray bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Fatih Karagümrük games / 11 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 54% | Draw 22% | Galatasaray 23%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Galatasaray 4.35. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Galatasaray 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 54% | Draw 22% | Galatasaray 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.88 / Galatasaray 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.170 / def 0.987 | Galatasaray attack 1.051 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Galatasaray xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 1 Galatasaray.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 54% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Galatasaray (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.17x the league average against Galatasaray's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Galatasaray's attack (1.05x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.45
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
3.04
1.16
Galatasaray xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
4%
28.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.16 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 5W 3D 3L from 11 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Galatasaray, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 3L across 11 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.82 for Galatasaray. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Fatih Karagümrük are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Galatasaray's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Galatasaray's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 1.55 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Galatasaray
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Galatasaray away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 2.20 PPG; Galatasaray away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Galatasaray have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won 3-0 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Galatasaray — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
6
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, Galatasaray have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-3 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Fatih Karagümrük, 80% for Galatasaray — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Fatih Karagümrük and 100% for Galatasaray. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Galatasaray?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 80% of Galatasaray's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 100% of Galatasaray's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray finished level at 1-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.88 xG and Galatasaray 1.16 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against Galatasaray attack 1.05 / defence 1.35, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 54% | Draw 22% | Galatasaray 23%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 54%, Galatasaray 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Galatasaray's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.64 PPG, Galatasaray 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Galatasaray (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.