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Fatih Karagümrük cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fenerbahçe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fatih Karagümrük beat Fenerbahçe 2-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 0.92 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.14 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fenerbahçe landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.73 / defence 1.12 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.55 / defence 0.95, drawn from 25/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 12% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 63%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Fatih Karagümrük win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 48%, Fenerbahçe 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights