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Shock result as Eyüpspor defy the odds to beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 at Ataturk Olimpiyat, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.38 xG and Eyüpspor 0.80 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Eyüpspor outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.86 / defence 0.94 against Eyüpspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.15, drawn from 29/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 19%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Eyüpspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 48%, Eyüpspor 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 0.69 PPG, Eyüpspor 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights