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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 30 as Fatih Karagümrük welcome Eyüpspor to Ataturk Olimpiyat. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Ataturk Olimpiyat, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Fatih Karagümrük) versus 0.70 (Eyüpspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 0 for Eyüpspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 48% versus Eyüpspor 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Eyüpspor 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.38 xG and Eyüpspor 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.857 / defence 0.945 | Eyüpspor attack 0.708 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.197. Data: 29 Fatih Karagümrük games / 65 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.08 | Draw 2.94 | Eyüpspor 5.26. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.

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