Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fatih Karagümrük face Beşiktaş.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Tuesday 31 January 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beşiktaş (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fatih Karagümrük register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Beşiktaş in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Beşiktaş have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Fatih Karagümrük's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–4 with Beşiktaş winning.
It is worth noting that Beşiktaş have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 58% versus Beşiktaş 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Beşiktaş 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.72 xG and Beşiktaş 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.254 / defence 1.196 | Beşiktaş attack 1.072 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.425. Fatih Karagümrük carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Fatih Karagümrük games / 57 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 36% | Draw 23% | Beşiktaş 41%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Beşiktaş 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 70% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Jan 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 36% | Draw 23% | Beşiktaş 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.72 / Beşiktaş 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.254 / def 1.196 | Beşiktaş attack 1.072 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Beşiktaş xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 36% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş?
Record (3 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 3W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.07x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
36%
2.75
23%
4.40
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
3.54
1.83
Beşiktaş xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
16%
6.22
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
6%
17.11
7%
13.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.83 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 21W 16D 20L from 57 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 26W 19D 12L across 57 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.70 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 13W 8D 7L from 28 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beşiktaş's away record stands at 9W 11D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.63 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 21W 16D 20L in their last 57 games (1.39 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 26W 19D 12L in their last 57 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Beşiktaş away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.68 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 4-1 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Beşiktaş 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 57%, Beşiktaş 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 50% (Beşiktaş).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 68% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 50% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük and Beşiktaş finished level at 1-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.72 xG and Beşiktaş 1.83 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Beşiktaş landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.25 / defence 1.20 against Beşiktaş attack 1.07 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 36% | Draw 23% | Beşiktaş 41%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 60%, Beşiktaş 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.39 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.