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Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 0.99 xG and Beşiktaş 1.81 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.86 / defence 1.22 against Beşiktaş attack 1.09 / defence 0.90, drawn from 13/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 18% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 55%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 46%, Beşiktaş 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights