Fatih Karagümrük 2-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük host Başakşehir at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's home record at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Fatih Karagümrük) versus 1.60 (Başakşehir). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Fatih Karagümrük, 0 for Başakşehir and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 59% versus Başakşehir 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 59% | Başakşehir 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.65 xG and Başakşehir 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.285 / defence 1.281 | Başakşehir attack 0.927 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.253. Fatih Karagümrük carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Başakşehir's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Fatih Karagümrük games / 61 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 42% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 35%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Başakşehir 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 80% | Başakşehir 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 42% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.65 / Başakşehir 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.285 / def 1.281 | Başakşehir attack 0.927 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Başakşehir xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Fatih Karagümrük 2 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 42% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir?
Record (3 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 2W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 0W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
42%
2.40
24%
4.23
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
3.13
1.49
Başakşehir xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
7%
14.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.49 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 23W 18D 20L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir's form line: 31W 12D 18L from 61 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 1.43 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (14W 9D 7L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 11W 9D 10L from 30 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.44 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 23W 18D 20L in their last 61 games (1.43 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 31W 12D 18L in their last 61 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Başakşehir away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.70 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
3
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Başakşehir have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Başakşehir 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 60%, Başakşehir 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 43% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 57% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 43% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir finished level at 2-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.65 xG and Başakşehir 1.49 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.28 / defence 1.28 against Başakşehir attack 0.93 / defence 0.77, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 42% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 35%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 59%, Başakşehir 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.43 PPG, Başakşehir 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.