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Shock result as Fatih Karagümrük defy the odds to beat Antalyaspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fatih Karagümrük beat Antalyaspor 1-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 0.91 xG and Antalyaspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antalyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.79 / defence 1.31 against Antalyaspor attack 0.71 / defence 0.88, drawn from 20/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 24% | Draw 37% | Antalyaspor 39%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Fatih Karagümrük win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 50%, Antalyaspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Antalyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.45. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights