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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor meet at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Form

Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Antalyaspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Antalyaspor are 0.50 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 4 for Antalyaspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 50% versus Antalyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Antalyaspor 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 0.91 xG and Antalyaspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.793 / defence 1.307 | Antalyaspor attack 0.712 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.294. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Fatih Karagümrük games / 56 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 24% | Draw 37% | Antalyaspor 39%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 4.17 | Draw 2.70 | Antalyaspor 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Antalyaspor 30% BTTS from recent games.

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