Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankaragücü encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük host Ankaragücü at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ankaragücü stand at 0W 1D 1L from 2 Süper Lig matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ankaragücü have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.59 xG and Ankaragücü 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.060 / defence 1.154 | Ankaragücü attack 0.699 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.365. Data: 40 Fatih Karagümrük games / 2 Ankaragücü games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 49% | Draw 25% | Ankaragücü 26%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Ankaragücü 3.85. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 49% | Draw 25% | Ankaragücü 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.59 / Ankaragücü 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.060 / def 1.154 | Ankaragücü attack 0.699 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Ankaragücü xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankaragücü?
Fatih Karagümrük 4 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankaragücü part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankaragücü is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 49% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Ankaragücü will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Ankaragücü?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Ankaragücü in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Ankaragücü (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Ankaragücü's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Ankaragücü's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
49%
2.05
25%
4.01
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.70
1.10
Ankaragücü xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
5%
18.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.10 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankaragücü?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ankaragücü, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ankaragücü, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ankaragücü by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fatih Karagümrük heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 0.00 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Ankaragücü in 0%.
Defensively: Ankaragücü in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
Ankaragücü
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Ankaragücü been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Ankaragücü in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fatih Karagümrük and Ankaragücü runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2022, when Fatih Karagümrük won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Ankaragücü specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
1
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Ankaragücü?
From 4 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Ankaragücü have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Ankaragücü last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2024, when Ankaragücü 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Ankaragücü?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Ankaragücü?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 0% of Ankaragücü's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Ankaragücü usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 0% of Ankaragücü's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Ankaragücü tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ankaragücü in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fatih Karagümrük run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Ankaragücü.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Ankaragücü 4-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.59 xG and Ankaragücü 1.10 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.06 / defence 1.15 against Ankaragücü attack 0.70 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 49% | Draw 25% | Ankaragücü 26%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 100%, Ankaragücü 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ankaragücü arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ankaragücü scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.