Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Altay – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Altay encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 28 as Fatih Karagümrük welcome Altay to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Altay have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Altay have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Fatih Karagümrük have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Altay 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Altay in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 48% versus Altay 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Altay 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.14 xG and Altay 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.803 / defence 1.017 | Altay attack 0.701 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.196. Data: 27 Fatih Karagümrük games / 27 Altay games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 42% | Draw 31% | Altay 27%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Altay 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Altay 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Altay | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 42% | Draw 31% | Altay 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.14 / Altay 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.803 / def 1.017 | Altay attack 0.701 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Altay xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Altay kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Altay kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Altay?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 0 Altay.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Altay being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Altay part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Altay is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Altay?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 42% chance of winning, Altay a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Altay?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Altay will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Altay have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Altay?
Record (1 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 1W | Draws 0 | Altay 0W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Altay in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Altay (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 0.80x the league average against Altay's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Altay's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
42%
2.39
31%
3.21
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
1.99
0.85
Altay xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
9%
11.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Altay?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Altay expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.85 for Altay, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Altay?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 27 games, going 11W 6D 10L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Altay sit at 0.93 PPG from 27 outings (7W 4D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Altay — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 6W 4D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Altay have taken 0.62 points per game from 13 outings (2W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Altay are on 1.07 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Altay
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Altay in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 11W 6D 10L in their last 27 games (1.44 PPG), while Altay have gone 7W 4D 16L in their last 27 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Altay away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.69 PPG; Altay away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fatih Karagümrük and Altay runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
0
Altay
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Altay?
From 2 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Altay have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Altay last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Altay.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Altay?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 46%, Altay 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 54% (Altay).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Altay in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Altay away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Altay?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 54% of Altay's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Altay usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 54% of Altay's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Altay tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Altay in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fatih Karagümrük's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 28, as Fatih Karagümrük and Altay drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.14 xG and Altay 0.85 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Altay landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against Altay attack 0.70 / defence 1.18, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 42% | Draw 31% | Altay 27%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 48%, Altay 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Altay's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Altay (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.