Fatih Karagümrük 2-4 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Alanyaspor travel to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to take on Fatih Karagümrük. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022, 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Fatih Karagümrük haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 7W 1D 2L at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fatih Karagümrük 1.70 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, Alanyaspor 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Alanyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Alanyaspor trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 47% versus Alanyaspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Alanyaspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.43 xG and Alanyaspor 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.992 / defence 0.899 | Alanyaspor attack 1.041 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.316. Data: 38 Fatih Karagümrük games / 38 Alanyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Alanyaspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Fatih Karagümrük 30% | Alanyaspor 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.43 / Alanyaspor 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.992 / def 0.899 | Alanyaspor attack 1.041 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Alanyaspor xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 2 - 4 Alanyaspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 40% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 0.99x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
40%
2.52
30%
3.34
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.67
1.23
Alanyaspor xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
7%
13.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.23 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 9D 13L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. Fatih Karagümrük haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.68 PPG from 38 outings (19W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. Alanyaspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 1.50 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 10W 5D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.74 points per game from 19 outings (10W 3D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.76 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Pre-Season
Alanyaspor
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 16W 9D 13L in their last 38 games (1.50 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 19W 7D 12L in their last 38 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Alanyaspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.84 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
3
Draws
4
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 47%, Alanyaspor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 53% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 53% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 53% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-4 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.43 xG and Alanyaspor 1.23 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 1.23 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against Alanyaspor attack 1.04 / defence 0.93, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 30%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Alanyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 50%, Alanyaspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.50 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.