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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Eyüpspor take on Samsunspor.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 29 as Eyüpspor welcome Samsunspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Eyüpspor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Samsunspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eyüpspor 0.80 PPG, Samsunspor 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Eyüpspor, 2 for Samsunspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Samsunspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 48% versus Samsunspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Samsunspor 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.22 xG and Samsunspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.720 / defence 1.046 | Samsunspor attack 0.978 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.181. Eyüpspor's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Samsunspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Eyüpspor games / 64 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 33% | Draw 34% | Samsunspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Samsunspor 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 40% | Samsunspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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