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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

plays host to Eyüpspor versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 25 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Eyüpspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Eyüpspor's home record at : 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Kasımpaşa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kasımpaşa haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Eyüpspor, 3 for Kasımpaşa and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Eyüpspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 44% versus Kasımpaşa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 47% | Kasımpaşa 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.81 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.990 / defence 0.953 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.019 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Eyüpspor games / 34 Kasımpaşa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 52% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 21%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Kasımpaşa 4.76. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 40% | Kasımpaşa 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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