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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 42%, yet in-form Başakşehir provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Başakşehir make the trip to to face Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at , Eyüpspor have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Başakşehir have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Başakşehir haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Başakşehir's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Başakşehir arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eyüpspor lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Başakşehir winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Eyüpspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 44% versus Başakşehir 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 47% | Başakşehir 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.45 xG and Başakşehir 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.990 / defence 0.953 | Başakşehir attack 1.047 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Eyüpspor games / 34 Başakşehir games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 42% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 28%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Başakşehir 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Başakşehir (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 40% | Başakşehir 60%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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