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Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Eyüpspor 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Eyüpspor 0-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.01 xG and Trabzonspor 1.85 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.76 / defence 1.09 against Trabzonspor attack 1.41 / defence 0.97, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 18% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 54%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 48%, Trabzonspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights