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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eyüpspor face Trabzonspor.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Eyüpspor have posted 2W 4D 4L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Trabzonspor (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Trabzonspor arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Eyüpspor 0W, Trabzonspor 2W, 1D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Trabzonspor winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Trabzonspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Trabzonspor 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.01 xG and Trabzonspor 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.760 / defence 1.089 | Trabzonspor attack 1.411 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.206. Eyüpspor's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Eyüpspor games / 62 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 18% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 54%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Trabzonspor 1.85. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 40% | Trabzonspor 80% BTTS from recent games.

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