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Dominant Eyüpspor run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rizespor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Rizespor 4-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.33 xG and Rizespor 1.19 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against Rizespor attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 36% | Draw 34% | Rizespor 30%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Rizespor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Rizespor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.21 PPG, Rizespor 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights