Eyüpspor 4-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 36%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eyüpspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eyüpspor host Rizespor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rizespor's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rizespor are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Rizespor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Eyüpspor's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–3 with Rizespor winning.
It is worth noting that Rizespor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Rizespor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Rizespor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.33 xG and Rizespor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.831 / defence 1.026 | Rizespor attack 1.048 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Data: 68 Eyüpspor games / 68 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 36% | Draw 34% | Rizespor 30%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Rizespor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 50% | Rizespor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 36% | Draw 34% | Rizespor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Eyüpspor 1.33 / Rizespor 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.831 / def 1.026 | Rizespor attack 1.048 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Rizespor xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Eyüpspor 4 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Rizespor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 36% chance of winning, Rizespor a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Eyüpspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Rizespor?
Record (3 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 3W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Rizespor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Rizespor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.83) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
36%
2.77
34%
2.92
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.52
1.19
Rizespor xG
2.77
36%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.19 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 22W 16D 30L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Rizespor's form line: 25W 14D 29L from 68 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 1.21 PPG, Rizespor on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Eyüpspor have posted 1.44 PPG from 34 outings (14W 7D 13L).
On the road, Rizespor have gone 8W 8D 18L from 34 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.41 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 22W 16D 30L in their last 68 games (1.21 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 25W 14D 29L in their last 68 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Rizespor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.44 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2026, when Eyüpspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Rizespor?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 1, Rizespor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Eyüpspor 4-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 50%, Rizespor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Eyüpspor) and 62% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Rizespor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Eyüpspor's games and 62% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eyüpspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Eyüpspor's matches and 62% of Rizespor's.
Do Eyüpspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eyüpspor run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Rizespor 4-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.33 xG and Rizespor 1.19 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against Rizespor attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 36% | Draw 34% | Rizespor 30%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Rizespor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.21 PPG, Rizespor 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.