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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 36%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eyüpspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Eyüpspor host Rizespor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Rizespor's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rizespor are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Rizespor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Eyüpspor's 0 victories.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–3 with Rizespor winning.

It is worth noting that Rizespor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Rizespor in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Rizespor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Rizespor 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.33 xG and Rizespor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.831 / defence 1.026 | Rizespor attack 1.048 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Data: 68 Eyüpspor games / 68 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 36% | Draw 34% | Rizespor 30%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Rizespor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 50% | Rizespor 60% BTTS from recent games.

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