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Dominant Konyaspor run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Eyüpspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Konyaspor beat Eyüpspor 1-4 at Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.65 xG and Konyaspor 1.37 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Konyaspor outscored their 1.37 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against Konyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 44% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 32%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 56%, Konyaspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Konyaspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.47 PPG, Konyaspor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights