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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Eyüpspor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor and Kayserispor finished level at 1-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.36 xG and Kayserispor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Kayserispor attack 0.91 / defence 1.25, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 38% | Draw 32% | Kayserispor 30%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 48%, Kayserispor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Kayserispor's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.30 PPG, Kayserispor 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights