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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Eyüpspor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, as Eyüpspor and Kayserispor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 2.01 xG and Kayserispor 0.85 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Eyüpspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.79 against Kayserispor attack 0.89 / defence 1.23, drawn from 22/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 63% | Draw 22% | Kayserispor 14%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 46%, Kayserispor 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Kayserispor's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights