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Eyüpspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kasımpaşa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Kasımpaşa 2-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.03 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.89 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 28% | Draw 33% | Kasımpaşa 39%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Eyüpspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 52%, Kasımpaşa 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.32 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights