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Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.40 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.06 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gençlerbirliği S.K. landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.09 against Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 41% | Draw 34% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 25%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 46%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 0.82 PPG, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Gençlerbirliği S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights