🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Gaziantep FK travel to to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at , Eyüpspor have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gaziantep FK haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Gaziantep FK's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Eyüpspor at 1.10 PPG versus Gaziantep FK's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Eyüpspor, 1 for Gaziantep FK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 3–0 with Eyüpspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 44% versus Gaziantep FK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 47% | Gaziantep FK 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.74 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.990 / defence 0.952 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.983 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Eyüpspor games / 34 Gaziantep FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 51% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 21%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Gaziantep FK 4.76. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Eyüpspor are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 40% | Gaziantep FK 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights