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Dominant Eyüpspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gaziantep FK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Gaziantep FK 3-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.19 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.36 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gaziantep FK landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.11 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.04 / defence 1.17, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 30% | Draw 33% | Gaziantep FK 38%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Eyüpspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Gaziantep FK 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.18 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights