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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Gaziantep FK travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026, 12:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Gaziantep FK's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Gaziantep FK — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Eyüpspor, 1 for Gaziantep FK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Eyüpspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Gaziantep FK 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Gaziantep FK 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.19 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.710 / defence 1.112 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.039 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.173. Eyüpspor's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Eyüpspor games / 66 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 30% | Draw 33% | Gaziantep FK 38%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Gaziantep FK 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 50% | Gaziantep FK 70% BTTS from recent games.

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