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Galatasaray cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Eyüpspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galatasaray beat Eyüpspor 0-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.02 xG and Galatasaray 2.47 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Eyüpspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.25 against Galatasaray attack 1.52 / defence 0.68, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 13% | Draw 19% | Galatasaray 68%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 58%, Galatasaray 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Galatasaray's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.68 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Galatasaray (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights