Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.99) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
30%
3.32
27%
3.71
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.97
1.63
Fenerbahçe xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
6%
16.94
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.63 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.