🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Eyüpspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Eyüpspor 1-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.11 xG and Beşiktaş 0.95 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.81 against Beşiktaş attack 0.97 / defence 0.73, drawn from 23/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 38% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 30%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 44%, Beşiktaş 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.74 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights