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Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Eyüpspor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Eyüpspor 1-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 0.94 xG and Başakşehir 1.74 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.10 against Başakşehir attack 1.22 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 17% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 53%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Başakşehir 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Başakşehir's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.27 PPG, Başakşehir 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights