Eyüpspor 1-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Başakşehir make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Başakşehir have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Başakşehir arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eyüpspor lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Eyüpspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 52% versus Başakşehir 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Başakşehir 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 0.94 xG and Başakşehir 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.883 / defence 1.099 | Başakşehir attack 1.223 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.297. Başakşehir have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Eyüpspor games / 56 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 17% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 53%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 5.88 | Draw 3.33 | Başakşehir 1.89. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 50% | Başakşehir 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 17% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Eyüpspor 0.94 / Başakşehir 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.883 / def 1.099 | Başakşehir attack 1.223 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Başakşehir xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Eyüpspor 1 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 17% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 53% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Eyüpspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Başakşehir?
Record (3 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 2 | Başakşehir 1W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Başakşehir in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.88) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (1.22x) against Eyüpspor's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
17%
5.97
30%
3.30
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.68
1.74
Başakşehir xG
5.97
17%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
18%
5.71
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
3%
34.08
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.9 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.74 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 19W 14D 23L from 56 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 24W 12D 20L across 56 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Eyüpspor against 1.50 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 12W 7D 9L from 28 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 12W 3D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.68 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 19W 14D 23L in their last 56 games (1.27 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 24W 12D 20L in their last 56 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.54 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eyüpspor have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
2
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Başakşehir?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Başakşehir have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Eyüpspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 54%, Başakşehir 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Eyüpspor) and 57% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Başakşehir in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 50% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Eyüpspor's matches and 57% of Başakşehir's.
Do Eyüpspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Eyüpspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Eyüpspor 1-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 0.94 xG and Başakşehir 1.74 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.10 against Başakşehir attack 1.22 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 17% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 53%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Başakşehir 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.27 PPG, Başakşehir 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.