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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir encounter.

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Analysis

Başakşehir make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Current Form

Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Başakşehir have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Başakşehir's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Başakşehir arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eyüpspor lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Eyüpspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 52% versus Başakşehir 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Başakşehir 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 0.94 xG and Başakşehir 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.883 / defence 1.099 | Başakşehir attack 1.223 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.297. Başakşehir have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Eyüpspor games / 56 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 17% | Draw 30% | Başakşehir 53%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 5.88 | Draw 3.33 | Başakşehir 1.89. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 50% | Başakşehir 40%.

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