🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Eyüpspor 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor beat Eyüpspor 0-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.41 xG and Antalyaspor 1.12 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Antalyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 41% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 27%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Antalyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Antalyaspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.33 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights